 Hostility,
turbulence and disorder
Drawing on his work with the Global Scenario Group, mathematician
and biologist, Gilberto
Gallopin shared reflections and analysis about possible
alternative futures for humankind. He described the Barbarization
Scenario and its possible social and environmental outcomes.
For Gallopin, predicting the long term future is impossible for
several reasons including: incomplete knowledge of processes; the
inherent determinism that arises out of the behaviour of complex
systems which have an inherent uncertainty; the world is changing
very fast and; the future depends on processes currently happening
but also on the choices that are yet to be made. The one thing we
can be certain about is that the future will be very different from
the past and present.
There are a number of elements that make us think that "we
are living in an explosion of novelty". Over the last 20 -
30 years, there have been profound and rapid changes in most aspects
of our lives. Humankind has reached the level of 'geological agents':
where once human action had local impacts, we are now having global
impact. Simplistic projections can be misleading and one of the
reasons that the Global Scenario Group use scenario analysis is
because many important causal factors are not quantifiable such
as political, cultural, ideological factors. Scenarios imply that
we are not looking for prediction or what will happen but that we
are looking for an exploration of possible futures, a range of possibilities.
Painting scenarios
Examining some of the social and ecological indicators, Gallopin
discusses scenarios and scenario analysis in detail.
File: gallopin_1.mp3 Duration: 10:59 Size: 876K
Barbarization Now!
According to the United Nations, in the last 3 decades, the share
of the richest and poorest people in the world is at the ratio of
30 to 1. At present the share of richest to poorest is 60 to 1.
The inequity has doubled and is increasing. Resource depletion is
also an issue and globally there are problems with water, forests
and fisheries. Pollution is on the rise with only minor improvements
in air quality in cities in richer countries. Socially and environmentally,
we are experiencing greater inequity and problems which are becoming
worse, not better.
The Global Scenario Group identified a series of clustered, driving
forces which impact on global system which Gallopin addresses.
File: gallopin_2.mp3 Duration: 7:12 Size: 572K
The Barbarization Scenario envisions the possibility that the
social, economic and moral underpinnings of civilisation will deteriorate
as emerging problems overwhelm the coping capacity of societies.
Gallopin asks "What will happen if the global systems prove
themselves to be unable or unwilling to confront the stresses and
challenges associated with these trends?"
The limits of the possible
For many people in the world, the Barbarization Scenario is already
happening and for many it can seem like the most likely future.
Gallopin stresses that the possibility of this scenario in our future
should have some impact on our thinking and decision-making.
Here he discusses in detail possible outcomes as the Barbarization
Scenario unfolds.
File: gallopin_3.mp3 Duration: 18:28 Size: 1.4MB
|
